Ok, going to wrap up the solo play-through and then transition into a PBEM recap.
Basically the Confederates pulled back across Bull Run, so it was looking like a victory for the Union except...
I had forgotten that one of the ways you score victory points is by killing the enemy. The Union had made one last attack on Centreville before Longstreet withdrew, and the Confederates rolled high and the Union rolled low. The ensuing casualties swung the balance of victory in favor of the South.
Which actually seemed like what would have been the case if this battle had been "real." The North had suffered a lot of casualties but hadn't really driven the rebels back away from the Manassas area.
I've just begun a VASSAL game of the All Green Alike campaign game (scenario 6) with Paul Franklin, of The Noise Before Defeat fame. Below is the map after three or four activations per side (I'm the Confederates).
Not sure what I'm doing really. I'm sending my cavalry forward to try and disrupt the Union movement. Anything else will have to wait for my reinforcements to show up, starting on turn 3.